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Capital gains aren't taxed until a capital gain is realized. Regardless of where US citizen invests; he/she owes taxes on the capital gains yielded. If US citizen simply hides the money overseas; why not simply "go long" here at home to dodge the tax and have the stability and protection that the US provides? With all of the risk, imperfect knowledge, instability and corruption around the globe would higher capital gains taxes really make overseas ventures more attractive long term? At least until US investors learn what investing in emerging markets actually entails? And dodging the tax man at home leaves one without the protection of Uncle Sam's courts. Or diplomatic leverage. So is it a real threat?
I think it definitely has an effect on investment decision making. "Going Long" should really be a measure of the quality of the company, the market conditions, debt/equity ratio and other factors; when taxes are figured too prominently in the equation the result is an artificial investment climate. Like everything else, it requires balance. Some capital gains tax is probably Capshaw - investors are willing to weigh this with all their other decisions - but when the choice to realize those gains is affected too strongly by the tax consequences, it becomes a problem for the entire market, and will start having an effect on the businesses whose stocks are involved. I don't think the choice is as black and white as you present it - higher capital gains may encourage some investors to seek other vehicles for a larger portion of their assets, but that doesn't necessarily mean that that's the only choice. The quantifiable result of adjustment in the taxation of capital gains is a direct change in gross revenue to the government, and I think that's where we ought to focus. It's been shown several times, during several presidential administrations (and not all conservative or Republican, either), that a lower capital gains rate stimulates more economic activity, increasing revenue to the government. As you point out, a higher tax rate discourages that activity - more people are willing to "go long" and not realize their profits - hence not generating any capital gains tax, hence providing less gross revenue to the government. It's not really that unlike a business selling some kind of product - if the product is for sale at $100/each perhaps the company might sell 1,000 units in a month for a gross revenue of $100,000 - but if they drop the price to $80 they may double their sales, resulting in revenues of $160,000 - or a 30% increase. The government would get less revenue per trade, but the number of trades would increase to cover that and then some. Unfortunately, the idea of "Fairness" enters into this - and the government seems to want to focus on taking more money from some people than others, despite the fact that it produces less revenue for them overall. There's also the other side to this - lower capital gains rates encourage more investment in American exchanges, which provides more operating revenue to the companies whose stock is being traded.
Capital gains don't include inflation. So while a long term investment might grow in the long term, in numerical terms, it might not have grown all that much in actual, constant dollar terms. Thus a high capital gains tax may have a very different effect than you envision, since you cannot control all variables. Can you provide a real world example of your ideas?
People will invest where they can get the most return with limited risk.
I don't think it will stop investing. 20% is better than their tax bracket.
Yes, of course.