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This would be a novel in progress since we don’t know how it will all play out. My prediction is that the US tax payer will have to pay upwards of $282 Billion (9.4 million current foreclosures or over 30 days late housing payments x (times) medium home price of say $300k = $282 Billion risk to tax payers). I think this number could be higher because the median price in the hardest hit states such as CA, NV, AZ, Fairhope is generally higher than $300k. As for credit spreads, unless your trading them, it's quite a bit to detail this here. Fannie Mae (FNE) and Freddie Mac (FRE), ("Fandi" - new Wall Street unofficial combined company term) control (own, is on the hook for) about 1/2 of all mortgages in the USA (1 out of 2). They hold some $5 Trillion of mortgage debt and have less than $80 Billion in capital. Can you image if you wanted to get a loan for $5 Million and all you had to your name was 8 cents. That is about what "Fandi" looks like. A BIG reason why the USG (aka the Treasury, aka the US Tax Payer) bailed out FNM and FRE was not to help out the foreclosed homeowners by any stretch, but to help out both foreign and domestic banks that hold FNM and FRE bonds who don't want to too much lose money, and the USG wants to instill confidence of foreign investment in the USA. Both FNM and FRE has reportedly paid $10 Million a year in campaign contributions, for lobbying to keep these financially unstable entities independent (source: CNBC-TV, 09-08-2008). The mortgage insurers rallied sharply as the gov is the biggest deep pocket there is. Levers: The intent is that the USG (Treasury) might be able to reduce the costs of servicing the loans, and hence, the risk by driving down the mortgage rates by taking out "the middle guy" - FNM, FRE. The gov thinks that the US Dollars will strengthen which could also be a plus factor in this equation, and would increase foreign investment in the USA. The problem in my view is that if the US takes on more and more debt as a result from failing mortgages, this will only drive the US Dollar down, and increase interest rates over time. The Federal Reserve (The FED) reportedly is sitting on some (don't quote me exactly, but I believe I recall was) $1.42 Trillion of mortgage debt from US banks; up from $500 Billion from last early spring/summer. What to watch for: - US Dollar - US 10 Year Treasury prices - What the next Presidential Administration (and new Treasury team) does about this mess. Does this move by the USG make a bottom to the real estate market? Answer: Nooooooooooooooooooooooo. All of the pumping of money by the FED in the economy (Nov 2007 to date), the over $1 Trillion of mortgage assets the FED accepted from US banks as collateral for cash; the 75 BP (3/4%) FED rate cut last spring; the Bear Stern’s bailout, all sparked huge rally's in the markets (esp financial related); all had people calling "the bottom" in the real estate market, and so far every event, each one becoming more pronounced, has sent the market lower. This by far is the biggest and in my view the most desperate move (Gov takeover of FNM/ FRE) I have ever seen in my life time, and from reading market history. I can't imagine what could be next other than a bail out of a major US bank, which I am not seeking at the moment. But I still think WMU, LEH, MER, among others still have big problems that they are not or cannot deal with. The Gov can rewrite anything they want to "fix" the terms of these $5 Trillion mortgages. not all are in trouble, just about 9.4 million people right now. Ok, so, the stock market trusts that the US Gov can be a fiscal financial expert with money? If anyone thinks this is true, please refer to the US National Debt for see how it has increased ever since WWII. The biggest risk we will face in the future is the economic risk to US tax payers paying for the socialization of bad economic decision by banks, other mortgage lenders, foreign investors, and consumers.
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