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I don't believe markets are efficient, but know that picking individual stocks can be dangerous. Hence, I have tried to create a value oriented portfolio, adopting RAFI and Greenblatt's "magic" formula. I have some cash on the side in case the market drops off a cliff. Also, it must be noted that I am in my twenties. ALLOCATION OF FUNDS APPROX $175,000 TARGET ALLOCATIONS: RAFI US-LARGE SFLNX 25% 43.75 FI US-SELECT FNSAX 26% 45.5 FI INT-SELECT FNAAX 14% 24.5 RAFI DEVELOPED-LARGE SFNNX 10% 17.5 RAFI EMERGING SFENX 10% 17.5 RAFI US SMALL-MID SFSNX 9% 15.75 RAFI INT SMALL-MID SFILX 6% 10.5
100% stock portfolio, overweight small/mid caps. If I was going to do something here, would diversify with 20% bonds. And cut back the emerging markets to 5%.
The state of the theory debate in professional circles is completely shattered following the meltdown of 2008-9. It really isn't *purely* a question of efficient markets "true or not true" any more. Post Apocalypse, its rather difficult to take the pure arguments with seriousness any more. I think it is more accurate to say that the argument now is more "can inefficiencies in the marketplace be exploited for profit" and "can small investors take advantage of it." I would say the arguments are still open for discussion, but the leading answers are "Yes, but not necessarily consistently" and "no." RAFI and every other concoction dreamed up in last 20 years failed to diversify risk as effectively as cash, bonds, and to a lessor extent, gold in the worst investment crisis of our life time. It looks like the whole thing was a case of bad data mining error. By all means stick a slug of money in emerging markets and GLD (well...maybe not right now), but numbers say 50/50 or 60/40 to Arvin and BND are all you really need. By all means, read Greenblatt, but "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" is the (vastly) superior tome for the "anti efficient market" crowd. (And one of my all time favorites)
What would you say is your investment risk profile?