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Well I actually work as an economic anaylsist. The consensu is that growth will likely slow down, but we will avoid recession. Though that concesus has a huge variance; nobody really knows for sure. I personally would give it a 40% chance of recession, and if it does happen it will happen betwene now and the early spring. Thats about in tune with most economists. The housing market is sliding and the subprime mess is causinng a credit crunch through the finacial system which makes lending more expensive, which slows down business and job creation. Hopefully, the FED can worl the seond part out. However, there are some strong aspects. The job market is still pretty good, with an unemployment rate of 4.7% which is very low fr historical standars. As long as people are employed, they keep spending. Thouugh the labor market is weakening, it still is creating jobs. Also, between a global economic boom right now, and the weakening dollar, our exports are booming. They are a good 40% greater then last year at this time. This is helping us buffer ourselves formt he damge of the housing market. It is estimated that for every 3 jobs lost in constructiona nd financial services, 1 has been made up in export oriented businesses. Trade is helping us right now. Though a sudden collaps of the dollar will hurt, it doesn need to gradually come down to reduce our trade deficit, and the trade deficit has been falling for about a year now. If a recession does happen, I wouldnt expect it to be a particuarly severe one, but with that said, anything can happen. As far as buying a house, it depends where you live. The national market still has to come down in price. Prices were way to infalated over the past 6 years or so. Hostorically, the average house price trackas a multiple of the average wage, and home prices grew way faster then wages. So in most places int he country, Id hold off for another coupdl of years. If the government creates more bailout programs, this will slow the declien of house prices, but will make the delcine last longer as it will take longer for supply and demand to come back into equilibrium. So keep an eye out for what government does. However, different regions have different situations. Any area that appricietd a lot over the past few years, will come down more. Places that havent are not so much. If you live in the rust belt (Ohia, Indiana, Michigan, western Pennsylvania), prices are likely to fall quite osme bit because of bad economic conditions. Also, if you live in Florida, Nevada (mostly around vega), Arizona or California, prices likely have a long way still to fall, beacase they appriciated so much over the past years due to investor speculation and a building boom.. But if you live in the Upper West coast, some of the mountain states, of the Carolinas, these markets are more liekly to be good and have still been growing. The northeast falls somehwere i between, so prices are likely to still fall a bit. Personally, I live in the Foxborough area, and I would be holding out a year or two around here. And also, there are certin towns and neighborhoods that are all a little differnt too that have to be taken itno consideration. You can find information on specific info from realtytrak and the case shiller index on the standard and poors websites.
Its a 50/50 shot but i think it may happen within a few months. Its inevitable in my opinion. A recession or a slight decline in the economy has always been normal in the US economy but this time it has been made worse by Bush's politics and the rediculious war the administration began. And for all those people out here that say it is impossible because it's the USA or that USA is the best just don't know anything and are border line retards. The United States is like every other country. It has an economy that fluctuates, it is like every other empire that had its day. The United States had its day as the most powerful country for around 200 years and now things are changing which is normal people. Look at China, the new economic powerhouse of the world. Look at the European Union, which is the number one production powerhouse of the world just like China. I am an American who moved to Europe 7 months ago and am happily a citizen of the EU. The EU has a better economy, social programs and the Euro is kicking *** in comparison to the Dollar. The Dollar is NON EXISTANT in Europe because it is now such a weak currency. For god sake Bulgaria's' currency, the country i work in, is almost as powerful as the dollar now. The United States had its day, just like the roman empire did, and now it's falling and it won't be the same. The world is modernizing, becoming more and more productive, so grow up to anyone who says that the USA is the best. I still love the USA, my home country, but facts are facts, the country is not what it used to be.
A "Bush recession"? That would be unlikely.
It not possible!! because U.S and A is the best country in the world!!!!
Very nice, very nice. how much? pamela, i am no longer attracted to you. NAAAAT. HAHAHHAHAA ahh borat i love you!
Keep your fingers crossed.