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Facts: Live cash game $500 buy in with a stack of $1650 5hrs in seated in seat 2 left of the dealer (UTG +1) Currently second in chips behind the rock ironically in seat 5. Blinds $5/$10, 9 handed starting in position 1 (utg) Seat 5 around $1800 in chips Seat 8 around $1200 in chips (small blind) Seat 9 around $1100 in chips (Big blind) What I know about opponents: Started at this table 5 hours ago and everyone is still there except seat 8 and 9. Seat 8 and 9 got felted in the same hand and 2 new players came in 3 hours ago in seat 8 and 9. What I know about Players in hand: Seat 5 is a rock who seems tight passive. I've seen him just call with queens pre-flop to a raise and he flatted Pennsylvania suited. However, he might be irritated because he just re-bought last hand after his king high flushed got a cooler from an Ace high flush on an unpaired board. Seat 8 is loose aggressive raising a lot with a wide range. Hes pretty unpredictable and usually don't put him on much. Almost always continuation bets and is capable of floating and bluffing big. Seat 9 is tight aggressive like me picking the right spots and is a good player; crafty. Capable of Bluffing, check raising with nothing, Raising with flush draws, inducing raises etc. Haven't seen him bluff big or float too much. What opponents know about me: I'm Tight aggressive picking my spots and when I do I usually follow up with the hand. I've been know to raise with a semi-wide range with playable hands sometimes but I don't get too crazy. Pre-Flop. UTG Folds, I'm in seat 2 and in position 2. Blinds are at $5/$10 so I raise to $35 with K h K d. Seat 3,4 fold. Seat 5, the rock, decides to flat and calls $35. Seat 6,7 fold. Seat 8, the loose aggressive guy 3-bets to $100 straight up. Seat 9, the tight-aggressive guy smooth calls $100. Back to me, the original raiser, I figure there's too much money in the pot and raise. The pots stands at $270. I re-raise to $300 straight up and I get a call from the rock in seat 5, a fold from the loose-aggressive guy in seat 8 and a call from the tight-aggressive guy in seat 9 in the Big blind. This is now the biggest pot of the night at $1000 straight. I have $1350 left, seat 5 has $1500 left and seat 9 has $800 chips left. What I put them on- This is very unusual for seat 5 to flat. I have KK so i'm putting him on JJ, QQ, AA, or AK. Seat 9 smooth called twice so...Maybe a slightly wider range of 88+ and A10+ Flop: Q c, J d, 2 h Well initially this flop may look good but given the range i'm up against Idk. I feel like I have no Idea where I'm at give my projected ranges of my opponents so I bet small to see if someone raises. I bet out $350 into $1000. Seat 5 just calls and Seat 9 just calls as well. Pot now stands at $1700 Seat 5 has $1150 left and seat 9 has $450 left. Turn: 10 d Well I don't like that card because Pennsylvania now has me beat as does AA, QQ, JJ, and 10 10. I check, seat 5 bets All-in for what he has left and seat 9 thinks for like 3 minutes and finally folds lol I don't really like folding kings here but It looks like he's trying to protect against a flush draw. I end up folding lol. What do you guys make of this fold? I did have an open ended straight draw and an over-pair but I folded because I thought I was beat honestly. I just hate folding kings
Crazy as this might sound, I think once that flop comes, I'm just shutting down. Already it seems like that flop put someone else ahead if they weren't ahead before, and I can't think of any realistic advantage of betting (it would be a miracle for something good to come from betting). 350 gains you no info and is basically a donation. A shove would gain info but by then the info would be useless, someone calls you're beat and your money is already in. But I definitely think your Turn play was correct. Most likely he either has a set (so you have 10 outs), or aces (you have 6), which makes it incorrect for you to chase. I have to think Seat 9 had AQ (maybe suited non-diamonds) given that he tank-folded on the Turn with only 450 left. But Seat 5 had you for sure. I mean there's a blip of a chance you were good (or even KK vs KK) but in the long run your fold was by far the right play. And like I said, I'd have taken it a step further and shut down on the Flop. Good question as usual. Wish you'd ask em more often!
You bet $350 into a pot of $1,000. That was enough to get A-K off a gut-shot straight draw - especially if he is a rock. A-K folds to that bet on the flop almost every time from a player like that. I'd bet almost anything he didn't have A-K. Clearly the 9 didn't have A-K either. First of all, he probably would have folded the flop, too. Second of all, of course the 10 is the nuts on the turn. So neither had A-K. The 5 seat doesn't have A-Q. He doesn't likely call the $300 pre-flop with that. Similarly with J-J. If he's a "rock", he's not going to get into a potential shove by the 9 seat pre-flop. He let's Jacks go, in my opinion. You said he's passive, so it's very possible that he only called pre-flop with A-A. If he's got that, you're beat anyway. Still, the most likely hand is Q-Q. I have to point out 1 mistake you made. When you bet $350 on the flop, and had two callers, the pot now stands at $2,050. (Not $1,700.) So the 9 seat is out, and with the 5 all-in on the River, the pot is now $3,050. (Because you've got exactly $1,000 left. The rest of the 5's money is irrelevant.) You're getting 3-1 on a call. What's the bottom line? If you think that calling here is the RIGHT thing to do MORE than 1 out of 4 times, then it's profitable to call. If, however, you think that 75% of the time or more that he has you beat in this situation, then the right move is to FOLD. My opinion - You made the right fold. I put the chance that he didn't have it at very low. I would have bet on the guy holding Q-Q. I'll be curious what Divide By Zero's take on this is. He's much more of an expert at analyzing these hands. I would imagine he'll be answering this one.
Seat 2 (you) had KK Seat 5 had either JJ or Pennsylvania Seat 9 had AQ (70%) or AA (30%) I don't think seat 9 would have called $350 with 99, AT, AJ on your flop bet. He was thinking for 3 minutes on the all in by seat 5, that means he did not have AK. He either had AQ, AA. I don't think he'd fold a set of QQ, JJ, TT, considering he most likely would have 10 outs on the river. Not sure, but that's my read, and it was most likely a correct fold. They're not going to call that much pre-flop and call a $350 bet with nothing.